Climate Change and Renewable Energy Generation in Europe—Long-Term Impact Assessment on Solar and Wind Energy Using High-Resolution Future Climate Data and Considering Climate Uncertainties

Climate change can strongly affect renewable energy production. The state of the art in projecting future generation has focused on using regional climate prediction. However, prediction is characterized by inherent uncertainty due to complexity models. This work provides a comprehensive study quantify impact uncertainties potential over five zones Europe. Thirteen scenarios, including global models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), are downscaled RCA4 model (RCM) 90 years (2010–2099), divided into 30-year periods. Solar wind production projected considering short-/long-term variations seven cities (Narvik, Gothenburg, Munich, Antwerp, Salzburg, Valencia, Athens). results showed that caused GCMs most substantial generation. GCM selection become even larger than long-term time. lead 23% 45% projection differences for solar PV potential, respectively. While signal radiation weak between scenarios time, affected 25%.